Commodity prices shocks and the Brazilian economy in the 2000s

Vol. 39 No. 3 (2019)

Jul-Sep / 2019
Published July 1, 2019
PDF-Portuguese (Pt-BR)
PDF-Portuguese (Pt-BR)

How to Cite

Tadeu Caputi Lélis, Marcos, André Moreira Cunha, and Priscila Linck. 2019. “Commodity Prices Shocks and the Brazilian Economy in the 2000s”. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 39 (3), 427-48. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-35172019-2968.

Commodity prices shocks and the Brazilian economy in the 2000s

Marcos Tadeu Caputi Lélis
Professor do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia da Unisinos, São Leopoldo/RS, Brasil.
André Moreira Cunha
Professor Associado do Departamento de Economia e Relações Internacionais da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul – UFRGS, Porto Alegre/RS, Brasil.
Priscila Linck
Coordenadora de Inteligência de Mercado da Abicalçados, Novo Hamburgo/RS, Brasil.
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 39 No. 3 (2019), Jul-Sep / 2019, Pages 427-448

Abstract

 This paper evaluates how falling commodity prices affected the Brazilian economy during the 2000s. In order to fulfill this objective two different statistical methods were used, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model with structural component and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. With respect to the level of activities, it was found that about 1/3 of the economic slowdown post 2014 could be attributed to the change in the commodities prices regime.

JEL Classification: O11; F44; E32; F63.


Keywords: Commodities prices, business cycles, Brazilian economy